Will the riot in Harehills, Leeds affect my house price?

A “family incident” escalated into a major disturbance in Harehills, Leeds, on the 18th of July 2024, resulting in significant property damage and raising concerns about the impact on local house prices. The riot, triggered by a misinterpreted interaction between social services and a family, saw a police car overturned and a double-decker bus torched. 

West Yorkshire Police and dozens of units were deployed to manage the chaos, urging residents to stay indoors as large crowds gathered and tensions flared. The police have pledged that those responsible will face the “full weight of the law,” but the immediate aftermath has left the community reeling and homeowners anxious about the future value of their homes. 

Historical events, such as the Bradford riots of 2001 and the 2011 England riots, provide context for understanding the potential economic and social consequences of such disturbances. 

These past events have shown the riots can lead to a decline in house values, increasing insurance premiums , and long-term struggles for affected areas. A resident of Harehills and the surrounding communities process the night’s events, the question on many minds is: Will the riot in Leeds affect my house price?

Harehills, Leeds riot impact on house prices

Studies have consistently shown that areas with high crime rates and incidents of social unrest tend to experience a decline in house prices. This trend is well-documented in urban economics and housing market research, highlighting the sensitivity of housing markets to perceptions of safety and stability. 

Research published by the Journal of Urban Economics indicated that violent crime can reduce house values by up to 10%. This study analysed various urban areas and found a direct correlation between spikes in violent crime and subsequent drops in housing prices.

The primary reasons for this decline include heightened fear among potential buyers, increased insurance rates and the overall deterioration of the neighbourhood’s desirability. 

In Harehills, Leeds, the impact of the 2001 riots on house prices was significant. In June 2001, the average house price was £50,000, which is equivalent to approximately £88,223 today after accounting for inflation. 

However, just a few weeks after the riots, in July, the average house price dropped to £25,000, or £44,112 in today’s money. By August, house prices rose again to £55,000 (£97,045) today, but fell once more to £30,000 (£52,934) in September. Fortunately, house prices returned to more stable levels by October and December, averaging around £52,600 (£92,811). 

In contrast, the nearby area of Roundhay did not experience a significant impact on its housing market following the riots. House prices in Roundhay increased by £25,000 between June and July 2001, reaching a peak before stabilising at £63,500 for the rest of the year. 

Currently, the average house price in Harehills, according to Rightmove, sits at £158,238, and has been steadily increasing year on year. While the recent riots in Harehills may cause a short-term dip in house prices due to immediate concerns about safety and stability, historical trends suggest that the market is likely to recover within two to three months. 

Neighbouring areas, such as Roundhay, are not expected to see any noticeable changes in house prices as a result of the unrest in Harehills. 

Karl McArdle, CEO and Co-Founder of The Property Buying Company, states, “The Harehills riot will undoubtedly have a negative effect on the local housing market. A look back at the London riots of 2011 clearly shows how extensive damage can disrupt local housing markets.

One of the major issues I foresee in Harehills is that many properties are privately owned rental houses. With landlords already being squeezed by declining rental profits and the abolition of the Section 21 Notice, coupled with the stricter tenant rights being imposed by the Labour Government, the recent riots might be the tipping point for many landlords to sell their homes altogether. 

Unfortunately, this could force private renters to find new accommodation, potentially oversaturating the rental market and increasing pressure on already strained social housing resources. "

What damage has the Leeds riots caused?

The riot that erupted in Harehills, Leeds has already had a noticeable immediate impact on the local area, with significant implications for house values. 

The riot causes substantial physical damage to the area, including the overturning of a police car and the torching of a double-decker bus. Footage on social media depicted vehicles ablaze and the police car smashed with various objects.

Such visible signs of destruction can deter potential buyers and lower house prices in the short term. Homes near the riot’s epicentre are likely to see the most significant immediate decline in value due to the cost of repairs and the unattractive nature of a damaged neighbourhood. 

Statistics from similar events help to show the potential impact of house prices in Harehills:

• During the 2011 England riots, the Association of British Insurers estimated that the industry would pay out more than £200 million in damages. Over 48,000 businesses were affected, with significant property damage reported in areas like Croydon and Tottenham.

• The Bradford riots in 2001, caused an estimated £7 million in damages. Notable damage included the arson attack on a BMW dealership.

Is Leeds safe after the riots?

One of the most immediate effects of a riot is the heightened perception of insecurity and instability. Residents were urged to stay indoors during the disturbance, and the large police presence added to the sense of danger. 

Potential buyers often consider safety a top priority when choosing a home, and the recent events in Harehills could lead to a decrease in buyer interest. This change in perception can reduce demand for properties in the area, pushing prices downward.

Historical data supports this concern:

• The 2011 England riots were linked to 3,443 crimes across London, contributing to a heightened perception of insecurity. Over 100 families were made homeless due to arson and looting during the riots. 

• More than 300 police officers were hurt during the Bradford riots, which contributed to the area’s unsafe reputation. A significant number of arrests and subsequent prison sentences (297 arrests, 200 jail sentences) further emphasised the severity of the social unrest. 

The economic impact of the riot extends beyond house damage. Businesses in Harehills and the surrounding areas may experience reduced foot traffic and potential closures due to the unrest. 

Local shops, already struggling, now face additional challenges from the riot’s aftermath. The loss of businesses can lead to job losses and a decline in the local economy, further decreasing the attractiveness of the area for potential homeowners.

Relevant statistics include:

• Retails lost an estimated 30,000 trading hours due to the 2011 England riots. The Financial Times reported that 48,000 local businesses suffered financial losses as a result of the looting and rioting in English streets.

• During the Bradford riots, the long-term dereliction of damaged properties, like the Upper Globe pub, which stood derelict for many years, significantly affected the local economy. The destruction of local businesses and increased insurance premiums deterred new investments from the area. 

Should you sell for cash in Harehills?

Given the immediate impact of the riots on house values, and the heightened uncertainty in the housing market, selling your house for cash can be a viable option for homeowners looking to avoid any further financial loss or damage to their investment.

As one of the UK’s leading cash house buyers, we can offer you a sell house fast and secure transaction, helping you to secure your finances without any prolonged open market house sale. 

We can offer you a cash sale in as little as 7 days, helping you to achieve 75% to 85% of your market value. We also cover all of your legal fees – meaning you won’t have to pay a penny. Since we have all our own cash reserves, we can buy your house directly, ensuing a guaranteed and quick sale. 

Selling your house for cash in the wake of such events can provide peace of mind and financial stability, allowing you to move forward without the burden of waiting for the market to stabilise.